Calling analysts: Industry = sum-of-firms

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Over-investment causing the China-bust started long ago, which early transparency could mitigate. Analysts should publish industry forecasts that match the sum of their firm forecasts. That way, unreasonable projections would be less credible, early signs of over-investment would show up, investors could act accordingly, and maybe we would see less of analysts’ persistent over-optimism – and reduced industry-and-economy booms and busts. Meanwhile, we still wait for the CFA-Institute training to explain how strategy leads to performance.

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“Model first: policy second”. UK elderly-care strategy

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Modeling supply-demand for Elderly-care Homes spurred Govt to defer unworkable changes, imposed with no idea how the market actually works.

Strategy in public policy, as in business is simply “What to do, when, how much, to get desired outcomes” but is often more complex because there is rarely one authority ‘in charge’. Legislation facing 136 Local Authorities (LAs) in England and Wales, was to impose additional responsibilities to finance the care of frail elderly people who cannot themselves afford it. Those responsibilities would also include minimising costs ...

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Enterprise Architecture Announce

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Great opportunities from linking EA and dynamic business models, so I am pleased to announce a practice-and-research collaboration with Chinese Culture University of Taiwan into the opportunity for system dynamics to contribute to Enterprise Architecture (the mapping of organisational processes and capabilities as a platform for enterprise-wide information-systems planning – for more on the topic, see the Open Group, a ...

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Models help Behavioural Strategy (BS)

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BS says complex data, mental biases and emotions make good strategy choices hard to achieve, but these are not ‘givens’ or independent. An interesting debate at EURAM among academics who have studied these issues for decades rather implied

  • … that our ability to make sense of complex information is fundamentally limited (especially in Strategy with its multiplicity of elements and interconnectedness) … but it can be radically improved by better representation – even simplistic Balanced Scorecards help a lot.
  • … that biases are simply ...
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