Giving a 1-hour talk on June 3 to Intracen on modeling to increase impact of Aid for Trade. Will share what happens. Turns out that this approach is offering a simple theory of how the trade system actually functions – traders generate demand to export goods (services are different), which have to pass through borders at which capacity is determined by physical and staffing constraints. In developing environments, ‘negative’ factors disable some part of that capacity – corruption, complex documentation, export-bans. So Aid for Trade policy needs to select which positive or negative factors are most likely to enable the system to grow, and keep doing so as export-traffic demand from traders rises.