Analysts keep getting it wrong

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Equity Analysts: Still Too Bullish in McKQ makes depressing, if unsurprising reading. Analysts continue a decades-long tendency to forecast nearly double the profit growth that actually follows, and go most wrong when they most need to get it right – when boom times falter. CEOs get beaten over the head with these forecasts, and mess up business in their efforts to hit stupid targets, so this is of more than academic interest. It is interesting to note, then, that ...

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Behavioral strategy

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Good advice from McKinsey on handling the behavioral issues of strategic decision-making. Important though this is, McK themselves have shown the strategy field offers little rigorous method for working out what to do – an issue that the field in general also worries about constantly. Hardly surprising, then, that in the absence of useful analysis, process is seen as critical. The flip-side is that if good method were available – which it is, of course – biases, power-relations and ...

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